The Future World

A farmer carries buckets to collect water as he walks on a dried-up pond on the outskirts of Yingtan

China will save us

The global climate changes are out of control and the world searches desperately for a solution. A small country like Norway is not sufficient to stop the global changes, but a Mega country as China is perhaps more efficient. If China starts a change most of the world will follow. Remember that EU is occupied with Brexit and USA with the Presidential changes of Mr Trump; China is ironically our only hope when speaking about great changes on clean technology, new solutions (Wind and solar based) and less contamination. The leaders in China work hard for the environment and it are visible that they want to do something both as a role model and economically; their thirteenth five years plan have the Paris agreement included. Most probable we see China modernizing their industry to become more in the direction renewable energy and green; yes China understands that GREEN is a market, and at cheap gives a DARK future.  As a result the costs in renewable energy will with time go down Worldwide.

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Looking at the pollution – and environmental projects started in China the last years we observe that “the war on pollution” is giving fruits. China is getting cleaner every day. Yes, still it is a long way to go, but China is moving fast. Most of the energy in China had its basis in coal and with that followed a lot of contamination; not to mention the fabrics contaminating heavily the environment. Today, the rules and regulations are changing and the country is getting cleaner, but it will take time. Some goals for China is that within year 2020 15% of the energy is supposed to be renewable (30% within 2030 and 60% within 2060) and coal reduced with 55%. The growth in contamination has stopped – is slowly reversed. It is easy to state that China is taking the lead in climatic issues, and it isn’t that sure that the world will give that position to China. It is also interesting that USA have become more protectionist and China positive to globalisation. This might tell us that USA is pulling out and China is taking a more central position. Anyhow, it is interesting to follow a China in this issue.

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Climatic changes

The climate on our planet is changing and we get climate records on daily basis. Most common is the increased temperatures, dryness and fire. 30.000.000 persons in East Africa and Yemen suffer from starvation. At the same time Northern-Africa suffers of extreme coldness and Tahiti suffers from extreme rain. The global climate is in an extreme period where the extreme is normal and normal abnormal. What to expect is more extreme than normal or different than normal. If it rains, it rains a lot, or it gets dry, very dry. The word disaster might explain the climate. Areas in the world that isn’t prepared get in deep problems; people start to starve or killed by the nature. WHO and Red Cross among others send emergency help to some selected areas to save lives.

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Official numbers say that the global temperature is up one degree and that the average sea level is increasing. As a result the extreme climate becomes even more extreme and the possibility to maintain a normal life is reduced. It is wet, dry, and windy and the food production is interrupted. Most likely we will have a migration from major cities located close to the sea due to flooding; New York, Amsterdam and many more. The population will migrate inward to higher lands and establish new cities and a new way of living, because the old isn’t possible anymore. It is uncomfortable to speak about these issues, but avoiding the topic will not help. We are facing an unknown future and entering an unknown territory. Worse of everything, we don’t have any knowledge about how a hot climate behave; we just know that it will be very extreme.

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Researchers say a lot and perhaps something is also said in frustration and ignorance, but it seems that it is most likely that the worse extreme climate will happen in Northern-Africa, Middle-East, Asia and Australia. Mexico and southern USA is also pointed out to get in trouble. When it rains it will rain triple and more frequent, and when it get warm it will get triple warm for longer periods. The fields will drown in water or dry up totally. We will get less food and our way of living will have to adapt to a new lifestyle. Please notice that experts have found a change in the earth temperature 80m under its surface. Our planet is overheating compared to before. The winters will be without snow and we will be left the memories about the good old times. Just think about it, they are building an INDOOR skiing arena in Norway!

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Climatic migration

The climate change will make huge populations moving in the direction of a better place to live. This migration will lead to a huge immigration problem in Central Europa, USA, Asia, Russia and Southern America. The most frequented place to mention immigration problem is in central Europa, but that doesn’t indicate that this is the ONLY place the immigrations problem will increase. We aren’t speaking about thousands, but millions that will move to new territories. These people need a place to sleep, food, a bath, toilet, medical care, school, work and something to do. The global changes will change our world. Before we had economical migration from poor countries, now we are facing climatic migration from developed and poor countries. We will get highly educated persons from the first world mixed with analphabets from the third world. Most likely we will get a mix between first world climatic migrants mixed with opportunistic economic migrants from the third world. Then slowly the amount of people will explode. Most likely we will get civil unrest and smaller wars. We need to prepare.

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Moderate estimates state that dryness will destroy 60% of the farms and 80% of the fertile fields. As a result millions have to move to find food, a better climate and a better chance for a good life for their family. The estimated population growth will not be where we anticipated. It will be where the climate is more moderate and the life is less hostile. Remember that the coming 80 years we will have 1.000.000.000 more persons in Africa than today; most uneducated and not used to the first world (yet). The world faces several new problems like housing, feeding and infrastructure. Perhaps the biggest problem is not our basic needs, but rather a challenge against our democratic system. Increased migration and extreme climates might change what people accept as acceptable today. Climate is a risk for our global stability. Economic growth and technological development might change for amount of climatic preparedness. Can we do anything, or do we have to accept what is happening as a natural process or our faith. The climate changes very fast and the global climatic balance are not stable. The experts discusses if it is possible to regain the control, but many say NO.

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Records

Let us look at 2016 as a climatic record year. Norway had the strongest wind ever recorded over a two days period. In January, March, April, May and September Norway broke the temperature record; recorded since 1895.  The country had record amounts of rain in June and July; 3 times more than normal. 2016 was simply a record year. Indicating what we will see more of this in the near future. The winter get shorter, warmer, the spring come earlier and is shorter, and a long autumn. A warmer climate gives more humidity in the atmosphere; something that caused more extreme rain. To make a long story short, Norway had 15 months in a row with different climatic records. It is very worrying (!) our climatic system is in change and the thousands of years of relatively stability are finish. Our society is based on predictions, predictions about climate and where we might grow and harvest. Without stability or predictability we cannot live as today. Everything is constructed for the worse days in a normal climate; not bad climate. Without predictability we see a growth of anarchy and segregation, racial hate, extreme religion and increase of fundamentalism and extremism.

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What do we know about what to come? Today we know that Africa is suffering big time. For example 100.000 persons list their life due to the climate in 2011. Today again, they have NO rain, and as a result in half of Somalia (6.200.000 persons) don’t have food; 363.000 persons in acute shortage of something to eat; reduction of 300%. In East-Africa (South-Sudan and Yemen) we find more than 30.000.000 persons starting to run out of food. Our planet has never faced a situation where so many persons are running out of food at the same time. People start dying of starvation; not to speak about diseases caused by malnutrition. 14.000.000 persons with unsafe food supply in Yemen, 17.000.000 in a nutrimental crisis in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda. 40% of Sudan depends totally on external help. We see the first signs of climatic migration starting between Somalia and Eritrea. Kenya have declared a national crisis and asked the rest of the world to help.

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USA has changed their way of thinking. Still we don’t know what they think, but we do know that President Donald Trump have stated that he will give less money to UN. USA found about 40% of WFP (World food program). A change in the founding from USA will create a desperate situation in the aid given in the world. Let us hope this never happen.

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Can we see some light in the tunnel?

UN has admitted that their theories or models have some mistakes. The theory that states that human created Co2 causes the climatic changes is not that correct, and the temperature predictions isn’t that accurate. Bottom end the foundation behind the climatic change is not that rock solid, and should perhaps not be used to develop politics. Well, UN stated some time ago that they are convinced that human created contamination is the reason for the climatic changes. The oceans are heating up; snow is melting and the sea increasing. Everybody is agree in that the climate have changed and that CO2 is a gas that might change the climate and increase in temperature, and that human activities have also given its share in this calculation, but how much come from the sun, ocean currents, volcanic eruptions and other variations. The truth is WE DON’T KNOW.

Many think that CO2 is less important than previously believed and some of the effect might be normal variation. Let us take a closer look into this political incorrect matter with an open mind.

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We have a today something called HIATUS a heat pause. The atmospheric temperature stopped increasing for about 20 years ago, but CO2 continues to increase in the atmosphere (8%). Something that is 30% of all carbon emission after the industrial revolution! Experts call this hiatus – the heat pause, and indicate a lack of connection between CO2 and temperature. Exactly this is the main problem in the global warming theory; CO2 increases and the atmospheric temperature not. The experts say that the temperature WILL go up, but it hasn’t the last 20 years. This temperature I am mentioning is the atmospheric temperature based on satellites (RSS and UAH). They show NO increase in temperature; AT ALL! The warmest year in recent history is 1998 and NOT 2016. The change in temperature is less that the possible measuring error in the satellite. According to satellite measurements the global heating stopped 20 years ago, and the heat pause continues. When WMO (World metrological organization) stated that 2015 was the hottest year ever, they did this without any statistical significant data.

The heat pause is a problem in different climatic groups; they stated that the temperature increases, but it doesn’t. The new now is that the heat has entered the depths of the oceans; it is a fact that the deep ocean temperature has increased 0.023 degree per 10 years, or 0.23 degrees in 100 years. The chance for this being related to CO2 is very low. It is also a mystery how the heat can penetrate the UPPER ocean levels without heating them up. The UN climate panel have admitted that their models do not function in long term predictions, and by that they discredit their own predictions. The panel THEMSELVES admit that their climatic models failed the test of time in 111 of 114 simulations; 97% of the models give an elevated temperature. This leads us to understand that the predictions are rather worse case scenarios. The quality is low and they sell the projections as truths; there is NO quality control and no statistical significance in the predictions. This is scenarios and nothing more.

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Until today there is not encountered any physical connection between CO2 in the atmosphere and climatic change; looking on statistical physical evidence. Most likely the climate is guided by completely natural processes far away from CO2 gases; heat pause. Information gathered from ice shows us that the temperature tends to increase BEFORE CO2 and not vice versa. Also pay attention to the fact that from 1950 until today we have created 500% more CO2, but CO2 in the atmosphere has only increased with 30%. Again illustrating something strange: What is really the importance with the CO2? For example it exist NO scientific evidence for 2 degree is a climatic tipping point. This is a number taken out of thin air to create a sensation of something; a political consensus. To question this political fact is not acceptable; not even when science tell us different.

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The sea is not increasing more rapid than before; since the little ice age the oceans have increased with 1.9 mm per year (variation 0.3 mm). In 80 years we might have an ocean that is 20 cm higher or 5 cm lower. Scientists estimates that we have a weaker sun and that decreases the oceans and the fact that we are going out of a 60 years cycle in the ocean streams to a colder 30 year cycle; as a result the oceans will increase less in the coming years. Melting of the Ice has been a preoccupation, and it is discussed if the ice melts with a normal rate or if it is growing. The famous climatic talk of Nobel peace winner Al Gore showed imagines of ice melting taken in the summer and not in the winter season. Ice melts and grows as a constant process. Under the ice we will find traces of previous populations; movement of ice is a normal process. The climate has been changing since the end of the ice age; without the influence of human created CO2. Most likely we are facing a new ice age and not a hot climate. Since the last ice age we have had five cyclical temperature variations; warmer and colder than we have today. As a funny fact, since the pyramids were constructed in Egypt we have had four heat periods far much warmer than today; of course without human created CO2. In the middle age we had for example about 2 degree warmer than today and the middle age were followed by the little ice age.

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Global warming is political founded and not scientifically. The atmospheric temperature stopped going up 20 years ago. The climate panel in UN admits that their models shows to high temperatures; 97%. When somebody says that the climate is different they see the climate out of the context. It will be variations, always… The valid measurements state that the climate is more or less as before, and that CO2 has nothing to do with it. The climatic politics of today is based on pseudoscience.

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How long was Adam in Paradise?

Let us rest a second. Is Global warming cancelled? NO. The heat pause theory was put to a rest when we experienced heat records in 2015 and 2016. When the data is analysed differently we find that the warmest years in recorded history is now! The ocean sea level has increased; most likely due to warmer water expands and melted ice. UN climatic panel have admitted to have some problems with their models, but NOT working group 1 that is in charge of the science. In large, the prognosis and evaluations of the climatic variations have been correct. It is difficult to predict the weather, but geographical and season variations is very predictable. In general terms the models work pretty well, but we cannot predict the weather the second of May 2021. We cannot mix the terms climate and weather that easy. It is 100% correct that the two degree goal is a political construction, and nothing more. The ocean levels increases steadily in the direction of the intolerable for our way of living. It is less snow and – ice in the world. It is easy to see that the climate changes due to many factors, and that this creates variations. The climate is very delicate and sensitive; for example the sun rays and the earth heat loss. Anyhow it is very likely that it is more to global warming than only looking at solar activity and natural variation. Now that we understand that global warming perhaps is happening.

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The other side (again)

The climate panel in UN stated that climate change from 1890 until today is dominated by natural variation and CO2. It is stated that CO2 create water damp, and water damp has a stronger effect than CO2. Tests of ice show that the temperature has changed a lot from the ice age until 1950, and that the temperature levels doesn’t correlate with CO2 levels. In short, Temperature goes up and down independent of CO2 levels. Most likely is the relative increase of temperature the last years an adjustment after the little ice age. Charts showing an increase in temperature is manifesting an increase long before CO2 become a common gas (about 1950). Climatic models often fail and cannot be used to make long term predictions; in 97% they give to high temperature. The climate penal in UN also accepts that the period after 1998 as Hiatus (warm pause), but of course not that visible. Satellite measurements clearly show that 1998 was the warmest year in the last 20 years. Measurements taken on the ground show that 2014, 2015 and 2016 was record warm, but the measurements had a bad quality and low statistical validity. The climate panel is actually giving out “What if”-projections, and not prognosis, only projections. It is assumptions and scenarios, but without any statistical significance. Again, studies have shown that there is no connection between CO2 and temperature, and it is not likely that the temperature will increase with two degrees before year 2100.

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Well, what do we believe since the political correct camp yell Global warming and the other camp yell natural changes? I think the best is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best.

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