Chinas President Xi Jinping have not spoken to USAs president Donald Trump yet and a lot of expectations are connected to what they will say, because indirectly they have said a lot to each other all ready. China is a really big country. Perhaps it would have been better to call China a Continent, but it isn’t. China is simply a huge growing country. Let us quickly see what the international monetary fund say about China. Chinas economy is 500% bigger than the economy of India and 1100% bigger than Russia. The defence budget of China is bigger than the defence budget of Russia, Japan AND India together. Japan is the third biggest economy in the world, China passed Japan in 2010 on the rating, and today China is the double size of Japan economically. Looking to USA we find that in 2002 China were 10% of USAs economy, and today China is 70%. If we look at the ability to invest or buy things we find China bigger than USA. This illustrates that China is growing, and growing fast.
For us that “know” President Donald Trump we see him as a businessman and China as closed protected communists. The last weeks have showed us that Trump want protection against external countries; “America First!” Chinas President Xi wants globalization, free trade and international liberty and -order. This might lead to a trade war; a war where both countries will lose.
In the world we have ONE super important annual meeting called “The World Economic Forum” in Davos where the economic AND political leaders of the world meet to speak about economy and politics. While this meeting were going on with Chinas president, USAs president pulled out of TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership). USA can do whatever they want, but everything has a counter reaction in a market. A TPP without USA is often regarded as a weak TPP, but is it? With USA out of the game we find the growing China taking a more important place on the table. China will have a very important place in trade in East-Asia. Remember that this is the 11 most trade active countries in the Pacific region. China will simply gain on USA being OUT of the region. The Chinese power is growing while USA is protecting themselves with walls and taxes. Just to have mentioned it at Davos President Xi called for globalization and that China wanted to play a more important part in the Global society; exactly what USA have done before. “America First” might create and advantage for China.
Important Chinese businessmen like Alibaba founder Jack Ma from China is standing screaming Globalization. Something he also did when he met President Trump a few days ago. He also stated last week in Australia that that if we lose trade we will create war. The world depends on trade, on globalization. Central UC persons like Cecilia Malmstrøm (EU trade commissiosioner) stated that EU stands together with China and fights against protectionism, but EU haven’t stated that they work against USA. If EU have to pick side today they would most likely select USA, but if this US protectionism continues it is very likely that EU selects China. EU would increase its trade with China and take more responsibility for its own security.
What we see today is a conflict between USA and China; a conflict that would have come as a response to the dramatic increase in the Chinese economic power and not directly due to President Trumps policy. USA loose power for China and have to react in some way. This is the way USA reacts when his Alpha position is under threat. Please notice that President Trump and President Xi haven’t spoken together yet. Mr Trump has called close to 20 world leaders, but he only sent the Chinese president a polite letter asking for a constructive relation with China. As a back curtain to this history is the relatively strong characteristics Mr Trump gave of China during his elector campaign; “China is abusing USA!” Mr Trump also has stated that the artificial islands China has built in the South China Sea is in international waters and thereby is not Chinese territory. Perhaps this is a bad starting point for a good SinoUSA relationship, because it is impossible that President Trump have forgotten China.
When we thought that everything were lost we see some light. The daughter of President Trump Ivanka Trump visited the Chinese embassy on Chinese New Year. Since this is a person that has a strong influence on the President we might see this as a declaration of HOPE. Well, President Trump did not send gratulations to the embassy as the previous presidents have done before him, but his daughter arrived with his grandchild that studies Chinese language. It is hope and this will work out just perfect…